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.Would Lee have fought that battle there if he had been given good intelligence as to the position of the Union Army? Would Lee have won if he had instead retreated and fought the defensive battle he had told his commanders earlier that he desired? There is no way to tell.What is certain is that Lee allowing his “eyes and ears” to be absent at such a vital time meant that both armies blundered into the Battle of Gettysburg.That need not have been the case.And Stuart’s mistake of turning away and moving slowly out of contact for several extra days meant that his cavalry could not be there for Lee when they were needed.There were a lot of other mistakes made by both sides at Gettysburg during the battle, but these two mistakes, Lee’s order and Stuart’s detours, combined to ensure the battle itself happened.And after Gettysburg, the Confederacy was never again able to do more than slow its inevitable defeat.54OVERCONFIDENCEThe Last Measure1863It was the night of the second day of Gettysburg.Thousands of men had died on both sides.Lee needed a victory, and the Union Army was dug in on the hills.Lee could not just retreat intact.He needed to win, preferably big.The war had been going on for three years, and from a strong beginning marked by remarkable victories, the Confederacy was now being ground down.Much of the West had been lost and Vicksburg, the South’s last bastion on the Mississippi, was under siege.The Union blockade had isolated the rebels from Europe and the European powers.France and England were anxious to support the Southern cause, but not until it was shown that the Confederacy would survive.Just defending was not enough.There was no hope of winning a battle of attrition against the more populous and prosperous North.A victory over the Union in Pennsylvania would show that no part of the North was safe.It would prove that the Southern cause was able to defend itself, and a victory might put enough pressure on Lincoln that he would have to accept a separate peace.Then France and England would have a reason to recognize the Confederacy, and their navies would open the blockaded ports.With European weapons and financial support, the tide of victory would again favor the South.As an added bonus, a big win would likely mean defeat for their most hated enemy, President Abraham Lincoln, in the fall election.Lee had led his army into Pennsylvania to find just that victory.He had planned to fight a defensive battle following the classic strategy of threatening the enemy in their own land and then forcing them to attack you to drive you out.Lee had scouted a perfect defensive position near the town of Cashtown.But this was not to happen: Both armies had stumbled into each other two days earlier near Gettysburg, Pennsylvania.Beginning as a meeting engagement by a few units, it had escalated until both entire armies now faced each other.The Union had stood to the defensive.In other times Robert E.Lee would have moved around it or withdrawn, but he needed to win.He was confident as well; in three years, the men of the Army of Virginia had worked miracles defeating larger armies time after time.He was counting on the high morale of his soldiers and the brittle morale the Union troops had so often shown to give him his victory.But times had changed, and the Army of the Potomac had matured.Its veteran corps were no longer prone to run when charged, and the firepower of its artillery was much more deadly than it had been even a year before.Lee could sense a victory was possible.Stuart had returned, and the Union forces had been battered.Lee’s losses were also large, but the morale of those left and their faith in him were high.As he rode along the Seminary Ridge, Lee described his plan for that morning.It would be a massive charge of the entire line against what he felt was a weakened Union Army that was just barely holding on.That was his first mistake.He had fought on his home ground too long.Men fight better in defense of their homes.It had given him an edge in Virginia, but now it was the Union soldiers who were defending their homes.This day they would not panic and break at the sound of the rebel yell.Longstreet pointed out to Lee that three of his divisions had attacked the day before and lost half their numbers.They simply were not going to be effective in another such attack.Lee had to agree, but in spite of that warning, he ordered the remaining six divisions to prepare to attack.But the commander of half the remaining soldiers jumped the gun.Confederate general Richard Ewell, whose corps on the first day of the three-day battle had driven back both the Yankee First and XI Corps, led his three divisions in an attack on the highly fortified Union position on Culp’s Hill hours before he was supposed to.If he had taken the hill, that might have allowed him to roll up the Union line or break through.The position was much too strong, and all Ewell took was a lot of casualties
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